January 31, 2020 | Get The SITREP​

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The SITREP

Stay sharp, stay informed. A weekly intel roundup for frontline leaders.

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♠ Welcome to The SITREP. This week's edition is all about Uncle Joe. More specifically, we'll be exploring all of the foreign policy challenges and domestic military issues that the new President will face, plus his new initiatives as Commander-in-Chief. Now that he's had some time to get settled in the Oval Office, we'll be breaking down what will change for the military and US policy under a Biden administration... and what will stay the same. ♠

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♠ 20 Years in the Desert: Can Biden take the Heat?

President Joe Biden was sworn in last week and has spent his first days in office in a flurry of action, both establishing new initiatives as well as dismantling holdovers from the Trump administration. Biden has already displayed a desire to steer away from Trump's priorities for foreign policy, but one place where he may find himself agreeing with the last administration is with America's 20 year trip to the Middle East.

• Ending the war in Afghanistan was one of Trump's claimed victories, although his strength on the issue was weakened with reports of Russian bounties placed on American troops (under Trump's nose). Negotiations with the Taliban are ongoing (and unproductive as ever), although the US aren't the only ones meeting with them (Hint: Iran, Russia, and more). And the troop withdrawal continues, if slowly.
• Syria is also a tough issue for Biden to inherit. There are no clear good guys in this conflict, and it's increasingly looking like a proxy war between Turkey and Russia (with the Kurds, Syrians, and dozens of other groups stuck in the middle.
• And finally, Iran. Last week's SITREP covered a ramp-up in Iranian exercises in the Gulf of Oman, but Biden's response at this time, as well as his long term Iran policy, is yet to be seen.

With regards to the aging wars in the Middle East, a lot remains unknown about Biden's plans. Some think he will fall back on his past record of interventionism and is more likely to pursue foreign engagements. Others think he's wise to the fact that America is tired of overseas counterinsurgency and won't tolerate another "forever war." ♠

♠ Wrestling the Bear: Biden and Russia

Putin's Russia will also be a big challenge for Uncle Joe. While Trump was fairly friendly with Putin and has broad financial ties to Russia (maybe even deeper), Biden has signaled wanting to take a stronger stand.

• A big talking point out of the Presidential election was the ties (both overt and allegedly suspect) between Biden's family and Ukraine. This may serve as an indicator of Biden firmly backing Ukraine against Russian aggression.
• ​Another unknown is how the Biden administration will respond to the current unrest in Russia that we covered in SITREP 002. Will Biden speak out on the behalf of detained opposition leader Alexei Navalny? Or is that too revolutionary for Biden's even-keeled foreign policy approach? Biden already has shown he intends to be tougher on Russia than Trump.
• One thing is for certain, Russian military demonstrations and expansions aren't slowing down. And they haven't allowed COVID-19 to slow their nuclear exercises.

On the list of foreign policy challenges for the new President, Russia is up there. But honestly? It's not the big one. The big one... is China. ♠

♠ The New Cold War: Biden on China

While dragging conflicts in the Middle East and simmering tensions with Iran may be a thorn in the side of the Biden Administration, his biggest foreign policy challenge will most likely be China. Twenty years of fixation on counterinsurgency has allowed China to catch up, and in some ways eclipse, US military and diplomatic strength. So what's on the menu for Biden's China strategy?

• First off, China has not exactly been welcoming to the new American President. The last week has seen a ramp-up of Chinese military flights over Taiwan (13 in fact) as well as continued escalation of activity in the contested island chains in the South China Sea.
• In another aggressive move, China recently passed a new national security law allowing the Chinese Coast Guard to fire on foreign vessels, seize cargo, and destroy structures within their (illegibly claimed) territory in the island chains.
• The Taiwan issue is a tricky one. Some think that Taiwan is the line in the sand that the US should establish when deciding to show China (with military force) that enough is enough. But will Biden be willing to draw that line? And risk China calling his bluff? Because China has drawn the line already.

The Middle East is a frustrating problem to solve, Russia is a real threat to NATO allies, but China will be the real challenge of Biden's foreign policy. ♠

♠ Biden and the Military: What's Next?

One of the biggest topics of debate any time a new President enters the Oval Office is how they'll treat the military. Accusations are predictably leveled from both right and left that the other side is "anti-military" or "pro-war." Although much remains to be seen of Biden's approach to the Armed Forces, what do we know so far?

• "America First," Trump's outlook which many took to mean "America Only" will probably see changes. There is already speculation that Trump's planned drawdown of US troops in Germany may be on the chopping block, but it remains to be seen how firmly Biden will hold NATO allies to their end of the bargain when it comes to defense spending and military commitments.
• Green in more ways than camo: Biden has already signaled that environmental policy will be a hallmark of his presidency. Along those lines, he's also directed the Pentagon to include the effects of extreme climate change in war games and planning.
• Progressive policies for military manpower: Reversing a controversial decision by the Trump administration, Biden has also announced that the DoD will be walking back the ban on transgender individuals serving in the Armed Forces. Supporters claim that this policy is a step in the right direction for equality, while critics have cited medical expenses related to transgender individuals as a reason to remove them from service.

Overall, Biden will likely end up as a moderately left-leaning, still pro-military President much the same as Barack Obama was. The budget may not grow (or may shrink slightly), but massive changes seem unlikely for a politician who's generally maintained the status quo for most of his career; love it or hate it. ♠

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♠ Weapon of the Week: Fairbairn–Sykes fighting knife

For this week's weapon we've got something a little different. The Fairbairn-Sykes fighting knife was developed by William Fairbairn and Eric Sykes, two detectives who realized the need for a concealable, deadly fighting knife following their experiences on the mean streets of Shanghai, China after WWI. After development, the knife saw service in the British Royal Commandos and SAS. On the other side of the Atlantic, the knife was issued to the OSS and Marine Raiders. More on Wikipedia. ♠

• Range: ~1m (operator dependent)
• Length: 11.5 in
• Construction: Double-edged dagger
• Used By: US, UK, and NATO allies

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♠ Weekly Read: The Mission, The Men, and Me

War stories from a Delta commander combined with timeless leadership lessons; The Men, the Mission and Me by Pete Blaber dives deep into a world that few know and returns with advice that applies equally to the war room as it does to the boardroom. Excellent resource for junior leaders, especially those whose subordinates may be smarter, tougher, and more experienced. ♠

Get it on Amazon: The Men, The Mission, and Me (referral link).

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♠ Saved Rounds

• ​Quiet Professional - Tools for making hard decisions. A discussion with Rob Shaul of Mountain Tactical.
• ​HunterSeven Foundation - Fighting the "Agent Orange" of the GWOT. Incredible foundation doing good.
• ​The Arctic Threat - Why do we care about the Arctic now? The answer is controversial, but shouldn't be.
• ​The War on Drugs on Autopilot - Fighting drug smugglers with drone boats.

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♠ Closing Quote

“I offer neither pay, nor quarters, nor food; I offer only hunger, thirst, forced marches, battles, and death. Let him who loves his country with his heart, and not merely with his lips, follow me.”

― Guiseppe Garibaldi

♠ We Need Your Feedback!

The SITREP is a project dedicated to informing and educating leaders in the military, government, and private sector with approachable foreign policy and military news. In order to improve our offering, we need to hear from you, SITREP readers. What did you like about this edition? What do you think we should add? Do you prefer deep dives into one topic (like today), or more topics with shorter summaries (like SITREP 001)? Let us know by replying to this email (team@thesitrep.co) or by hitting us up on Instagram @the__sitrep.

Stay Sharp,

-SITREP Staff

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